Examinando por Autor "Guerra, Anthony"

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Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests
(PeerJ Inc., 2025-02-27) Ames Martínez, Fressia N.; Capcha Romero, Ivan; Guerra, Anthony; Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby; Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth; Galeano, Esteban; Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C
Background. Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia will help us to understand the climatic and ecological sensitivity of this species and suggest conservation and restoration strategies. Methods. Using ecological niche modeling with two algorithms (maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest) under the ecological niche conservatism approach, we generated 16,920 models with different combinations of variables and parameters. We identified suitable areas for C. angustifolia trees under present and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100 with SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), tree cover loss, and variables linked to soil and topography. Results. Our results demonstrated 10 environmental variables with high percentage contributions and permutation importance; for example, precipitation seasonality exhibited the highest contribution to the current and future distribution of Cedrela angustifolia. The potential present distribution was estimated as 13,080 km2 with tree cover loss and 16,148.5 km2 without tree cover loss. From 2040 to 2100 the species distribution will decrease (from 22.16% to 36.88% with tree cover loss variation). The results indicated that Bolivia displayed higher habitat suitability than Ecuador, Peru, and Argentina. Finally, we recommend developing conservation management strategies that consider both protected and unprotected areas as well as the impact of land-use changes to improve the persistence of C. angustifolia in the future.
The importance of tropical tree-ring chronologies for global change research
(Elsevier Ltd., 2025-03-06) Groenendijk, Peter; Babst, Flurin; Trouet, Valerie; Fan, Ze Xin; Granato Souza, Daniela; Maselli Locosselli, Giuliano; Mokria, Mulugeta; Panthi, Shankar; Pumijumnong, Nathsuda; Abiyu, Abrham; Acuña Soto, Rodolfo; Adenesky-Filho, Eduardo; Alfaro-Sanchez , Raquel; Anholetto Junior, Claudio Roberto; Vieira Aragao, José Roberto; Assis-Pereira, Gabriel; Astudillo-Sánchez, Claudia C.; Barbosa, Ana Carolina; de Oliveira Barreto, Nathan; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Beeckman, Hans; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bourland, Nils; Brauning, Achim; Brienen, Roel; Brookhouse, Matthew; Buajan, Supaporn; Buckley, Brendan M.; Camarero, J. Julio; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Ceccantini, Gregorio; Centeno-Erguera, Librado R.; Cerano-Paredes, Julian; Cervantes-Martínez, Rosalinda; Chanthorn, Wirong; Chen, Ya-Jun; Barçante Ladvocat Cintra, Bruno; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio Heriberto; Cortés-Cortés, Otoniel; Matos Costa, Clayane; Couralet, Camille; Crispin-DelaCruz, Doris Bianca; D’Arrigo, Rosanne; David, Diego A.; De Ridder, Maaike; Del Valle, Jorge Ignacio; Díaz-Carrillo, Oscar A.; Dobner Jr, Mario; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dünisch, Oliver; Dünisch, Oliver; Enquist, Brian J.; Esemann-Quadros, Karin; Esquivel-Arriaga, Gerardo; Fayolle, Adeline; Anete Bergamo Fenilli, M. Eugenia; Ferrero, M. Eugenia; Fichtler, Esther; Finnegan, Patrick M.; Fontana, Claudia; Francisco, Kainana S.; Fu, Pei-Li; Galvao, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Giraldo, Jorge A.; Gloor, Emanuel; Godoy-Veiga, Milena; Guerra, Anthony; Haneca, Kristof; Harley, Grant Logan; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerhard; Hernandez-Díaz, José Ciro; Hornink, Bruna; Hubau, Wannes; Inga, Janet G.; Islam, Mahmuda; Jiang, Yu-mei; Kaib, Mark; Hassan Khamisi, Zakia; Koprowski, Marcin; Layme Huaman, Eva; Leffler, A. Joshua; Ligot, Gauthier; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Loader, Neil J.; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Longhi-Santos, Tomaz; Lopez, Lidio; Lopez-Hernández , María I.; Penetra Cerveira Lousada, José Luis; Manzanedo, Rubén D.; Marcon, Amanda K.; Maxwell, Justin T.; Mendivelso, Hooz A.; Mendoza-Villa, Omar N.; Nunes Menezes, Itallo Romany; Ribeiro Montoia, Valdinez; Moors, Eddy; Moreno, Miyer; Muniz-Castro, Miguel Angel; Nabais, Cristina; Nathalang, Anuttara; Ngoma, Justine; de Carvalho Nogueira Jr., Francisco; Morales Oliveira, Juliano; Morais Olmedo, Gabriela; Ortega-Rodriguez, Daigard Ricardo; Rodríguez Ortíz, Carmen Eugenia; Pagotto, Mariana Alves; Paredes-Villanueva, Kathelyn; Pérez-De-Lis, Gonzalo P; Ponce Calderon, Laura Patricia; Portal-Cahuana, Leif Armando; Pucha-Cofrep, Darwin Alexander; Quadri, Paulo; Rahman, Mizanur; Ramírez, Jorge Andrés; Requena-Rojas, Edilson Jimmy; Ribeiro, Adauto de Souza ak; Robertson, Lain; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Roquette, José Guilherme; Rubio-Camacho, Ernesto Alonso; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Sass-Klaassen, Ute; Schongart, Jochen; Callegari Scipioni, Marcelo; Sheppard, Paul; Silva, Lucas C.R.; Slotta, Franziska; Soria-Díaz, Leroy; K.V.S. Sousa, Luciana; Speer, James H.; Therrell, Matthew D.; Ticse-Otarola, Ginette; Tomazello-Filho, Mario; Torbenson, Max C.A.; Tor-Ngern, Pantana; Touchan, Ramzi; Van Den Bulcke, Jan bi; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo; Velázquez-Pérez, Adin H.; Venegas-González, Alejandro; Villalba, Ricardo; Villanueva-Diaz, José; Vlam, Mart; Vourlitis, George; Wehenkel, Christian; Wils, Tommy; Zavaleta, Erika S.; Asfaw Zewdu, Eshetu; Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Zhou, Zhe-Kun; Zuidema, Pieter A.
Tropical forests and woodlands are key components of the global carbon and water cycles. Yet, how climate change affects these biogeochemical cycles is poorly understood because of scarce long-term observations of tropical tree growth. The recent rise in tropical tree-ring studies may help to fill this gap, but a large-scale quantitative analysis of their potential in global change research is missing. We compiled a list of all tropical tree species known to form annual tree rings and built a network encompassing 492 tropical ring-width chronologies to evaluate the potential to generate insights on climate sensitivity of woody productivity and to build centuries-long reconstructions of climate variability. We assess chronology quality, length, and climatic representativeness and explore how these change along climatic gradients. Finally, we applied species-distribution modeling to identify regions with potential for tree-ring studies in ecological and climatic studies. The number of tropical chronologies has rapidly increased, with ~400 added over the past two decades. Yet, tree-ring studies are biased towards high-elevation locations, with gaps in warmer and wetter climates, on the African continent, and for angiosperm species. The longest chronologies with strongest climate signals (i.e., synchronous growth variations among trees) are from cool regions. In wet regions, climate signals and precipitation sensitivity decrease. Most tropical regions harbor 5–15 (and up to 80) species with proven potential to generate chronologies. The potential for long climate reconstructions is particularly high in drier high elevation sites. Our findings support strategies to effectively expand tree-ring research in the tropics, by targeting specific species and regions. Tropical dendrochronology can importantly contribute to global change research by generating historical context of climate extremes, quantifying climate sensitivity of woody productivity and benchmarking vegetation models.