Examinando por Materia "Distribution"

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Current and future distribution of Shihuahuaco (Dipteryx spp.) under climate change scenarios in the Central-Eastern Amazon of Peru
(MDPI, 2023-05-10) Cárdenas Rengifo, Gloria Patricia; Bravo Morales, Nino Frank; Barboza Castillo, Elgar; Salazar Coronal, Wilian; Ocaña Reyes, Jimmy Alcides; Vásquez Macedo, Miguel; Lobato Gálvez, Roiser Honorio; Injante Silva, Pedro Hugo; Arbizu Berrocal, Carlos Irvin
The consequences of climate change influence the distribution of species, which plays a key role in ecosystems. In this work, the modeling of the current and potential future distribution was carried out under different climate change scenarios of a tree species of high economic and commercial value, Dipteryx spp. This is a hardwood species that plays an important role in carbon sequestration, providing food and nesting for wildlife species, reaching more than 40 m in height with an average diameter of 70 to 150 cm. This species is currently threatened by overexploitation. Thirty-six bioclimatic, topographic and edaphic variables with ~1 km2 spatial resolution obtained from the WorldClim, SoilGrids and SRTM databases where used. Highly correlated variables were identified with the MaxEnt software for forecasting how the species distribution will be affected until the year 2100, according to the climate scenarios SPP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, representing the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively. The AUC accuracy value of 0.88 to 0.89 was found for the distribution models and the highest contributing variables used were Bio 5, precipitation, Bio 2, and Bio 14. In the climate scenario SPP1-2.6 (Bio 5, precipitation and Bio 2) in 2061–2080, suitable and very suitable habitats represented 30.69% of the study area (2616 ha and 586.97 ha, respectively) and those increased by 1.75% under current climate conditions, and the suitable and unsuitable habitats represented 69.31% of the total area. The results of this research provide valuable information on the current and future distribution of the species and identify zones that can be used as the basis for the creation of conservation areas, formulation of restoration projects, reforestation and sustainable management to avoid the extinction of the species in the face of the effects of climate change.
Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios
(Elsevier, 2025-02-17) Gómez Fernández, Darwin; García, Ligia; Silva López, Jhonsy O.; Veneros Guevara, Jaris; Arellanos Carrión, Erick; Salas Lopez, Rolando; Goñas Goñas, Malluri; Atalaya Marin, Nilton; Oliva Cruz, Manuel; Rojas Briceño, Nilton B.
Beekeeping plays an important role in global food production and the conservation of wild species. However, determining territorial suitability and future distribution under climate change scenarios is a relatively under-studied area in Peru. This study assessed the beekeeping suitability of the Amazonas region and its variation under climate change scenarios in two projected periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100), according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The methodological framework integrated the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Hadley Centre Global Earth Model - Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC31-LL) was used for future climate analysis. The beekeeping suitability of the region was determined based on eleven criteria: four climatic, three topographic, and four environmental. The results indicate that beekeeping suitability is distributed as follows: 3.4% (1417.90 km²) with 'High' suitability, 79.2% (33,318.61 km²) with 'Moderate' suitability, 17.2% (7230.26 km²) with 'Marginal' suitability, and 0.2% (83.64 km²) as 'Not suitable'. Moreover, the average temperature across the region is projected to increase by approximately 3 °C under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and between 6 °C and 8 °C under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during the projected periods. Precipitation will decrease in the northern part of the region, while the southwestern part will experience an increase. In the highly suitable beekeeping area, a temperature increases up to 10.8 °C is expected, with frequent variations around 3 °C to 8 °C, affecting more than 500 km². Additionally, a reduction in precipitation up to 311 mm/year is projected, with predominant variations ranging from -49.5 to 32.8 mm/year over approximately 600 km². Therefore, it is suggested to implement strategies to mitigate these upcoming challenges, particularly if the modeled economic development under the SSPs continues. This study modeled and mapped areas with present conditions suitable for beekeeping and future climate behavior. The modeling aims to guide beekeepers and local authorities in developing sustainable practices and implementing preventive measures to address future climatic challenges.