Examinando por Materia "Species distribution models"

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Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests
(PeerJ Inc., 2025-02-27) Ames Martínez, Fressia N.; Capcha Romero, Ivan; Guerra, Anthony; Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby; Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth; Galeano, Esteban; Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C
Background. Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia will help us to understand the climatic and ecological sensitivity of this species and suggest conservation and restoration strategies. Methods. Using ecological niche modeling with two algorithms (maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest) under the ecological niche conservatism approach, we generated 16,920 models with different combinations of variables and parameters. We identified suitable areas for C. angustifolia trees under present and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100 with SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), tree cover loss, and variables linked to soil and topography. Results. Our results demonstrated 10 environmental variables with high percentage contributions and permutation importance; for example, precipitation seasonality exhibited the highest contribution to the current and future distribution of Cedrela angustifolia. The potential present distribution was estimated as 13,080 km2 with tree cover loss and 16,148.5 km2 without tree cover loss. From 2040 to 2100 the species distribution will decrease (from 22.16% to 36.88% with tree cover loss variation). The results indicated that Bolivia displayed higher habitat suitability than Ecuador, Peru, and Argentina. Finally, we recommend developing conservation management strategies that consider both protected and unprotected areas as well as the impact of land-use changes to improve the persistence of C. angustifolia in the future.
Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru
(Urban und Fischer Verlag GmbH und Co. KG, 2022-11-14) Guzman, Betty K.; Cotrina Sánchez, Alexander; Allauja Salazar, Elvis E.; Olivera Tarifeño, Christian M.; Ramos Sandoval, Jhonny D.; Hoyos Cerna, Marlon Y.; Barboza Castillo, Elgar; Torres Guzmán, Cristóbal; Oliva Cruz, Manuel
Species distribution models (SDMs) provide conservationist with spatial distributions estimations of priority species. Lagothrix flavicauda (Humboldt, 1812), commonly known as the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey, is one of the largest primates in the New World. This species is endemic to the montane forests of northern Peru, in the departments of Amazonas, San Martín, Huánuco, Junín, La Libertad, and Loreto at elevation from1,000 to 2,800 m. It is classified as “Critically Endangered” (CR) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as well as by Peruvian legislation. Furthermore, it is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Research on precise estimates of its potential distribution are scare. Therefore, in this study we modeled the potential distribution area of this species in Peru, the model was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm, along with 80 georeferenced occurrence records and 28 environmental variables. The total distribution (high, moderate, and low) for L. flavicauda is 29,383.3 km2, having 3,480.7 km2 as high potential distribution. In effect, 22.64 % (6,648.49 km2) of the total distribution area of L. flavicauda is found within Natural Protected Areas (NPAs), with the following categories representing the largest areas of distribution: Protected Forests (1,620.41 km2), Regional Conservation Areas (1,976.79 km2), and Private Conservation Areas (1,166.55 km2). After comparing the predicted distribution with the current NPAs system, we identified new priority areas for the conservation of the species. We, therefore, believe that this study will contribute significantly to the conservation of L. flavicauda in Peru.